Market Outlook

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U.S. and Mexico 2024/25 Sugar Production Expected To Be Larger Than 2023/24

In the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the forecast for Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar production is raised from last month by 77,000 metric tons (MT), actual weight, to 4.649 million MT—still a 25-year low—based on an interim analysis showing improvement in the sugarcane yield and recovery rate. The initial forecast of 2024/25 sugar production is 5.189 million MT based on the assumption that the sugarcane yield and recovery rate would track historical trends, but that area would be below the standard 800,000-hectare starting point. The 2024/25 U.S. additional specialty refined sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) has not been announced and was assumed equal to the 2023/24 level (210,000 MT, raw value) to derive the initial exports to the United States of 1.024 million MT per the suspension agreements.

The U.S. 2023/24 sugar production is lowered by 84,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 9.131 million, with decreases in both beet and cane sugar output. The 2024/25 production forecast is initially set at 9.232 million STRV with yearly increases for both sugar types. Sugar imports in 2023/24 are increased by 21,000 STRV to 3.438 million mostly on larger volume of raw sugar from the Philippines. Sugar imports in 2024/25 are forecast at 3.028 million STRV, reflecting minimum import commitment levels, established free trade agreement levels, and a base volume for re-export imports and high-tier tariff imports. Total deliveries in 2023/24 are reduced by 100,000 STRV to 12.455 million based on a slower than expected pace for human consumption; this volume is carried over to 2024/25. Without the specialty sugar announcement, the corresponding 2024/25 stocks-to-use ratio is 11.7 percent.